I got this question via Facebook today:
we are in the midst of our draft and a question arose….a double grade pitcher (A&B)…..how is he played???? A column unless its a re-roll and then read the B column????
This is the second time I’ve seen this question recently. It came up on the APBA Between the Lines forum a couple weeks ago. So I figured it was worth addressing.
No, it’s not a re-roll or anything like that. The rule is simple. The pitcher is rated as a Grade A pitcher UNLESS the result is a hit. In that case, the pitcher is rated as the second grade (a C if he is an A&C pitcher, for example). There is no re-roll.
But which is better?
The age old question for those of us who analyze too much is between the A&C and A&B, which grade is tougher overall? Let’s take a quick look at when the double grades take effect (using the basic game rules).
The situations which affect the A&C:
| Runner on First | #9 | converts single to 5-3 |
The situations which affected by the A&B:
| Runner on Third | #8 | converts single to PO-9 SF |
| Runners on First and Third | #7 | convert single to PO-8 SF |
| Runners on Second and Third | #8 | converts single to PO-8 SF |
Obviously, there are more total situations for the A&B but let’s not discount that the A&C advantage takes effect with a runner on first. I may be going on old statistics but I think that situation occurs about 30-35% of the time. That’s probably more than the other three combined.
Now that said, there are two things to keep in mind…
1) all of the Grade A&B effect situations are key situations with runners in scoring position and
2) let’s face it, most of the A&C pitchers and ALL of the A&B pitchers you’re going to run across are going to be relievers. Essentially, you’re going to have more leeway on when you bring them in and what base situations they will face.
If you pose this question on two starting pitchers going seven innings or so, I would rather have the A&C grade based on the potential number of 9s stopped with runners on first. But hey, I could be wrong.
I posed this question to our commish. He threw his (virtual) arms up and just said they’re both better than what he’s got this year. Given the esoteric nature of this discussion, that’s probably the smartest response I’ve heard.
For the AL last year, the on-base situational percentages were:
Bases Empty: 55.4%
Man on First: 18%
Man on Second: 9%
Man on Third: 2.8%
First and Second: 6.8%
First and Third: 3.1%
Second and Third: 2.5%
Bases Loaded: 2.5%
ugh, I was off on the percentages. I could have sworn the AJ told me it was 35% (maybe it was in 1985 or whatever)..