Brian Cavanagh can finally take his mind off the weather in Philly and focus on important things like baseball and APBA. He writes:
what do you think the chances are that the Phillies will have 3-4 “A” starters next season????
It’s a fair question. Here are some relevant stats of the Phillies’ starting staff as of September 8:
| W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliff Lee* | 16 | 7 | .696 | 2.47 | 28 | 28 | 6 | 6 | 203.2 | 170 | 58 | 56 | 15 | 40 | 204 | 157 |
| Roy Halladay | 16 | 5 | .762 | 2.49 | 28 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 202.2 | 188 | 60 | 56 | 9 | 26 | 195 | 156 |
| Cole Hamels* | 13 | 7 | .650 | 2.63 | 27 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 185.0 | 141 | 54 | 54 | 12 | 38 | 169 | 148 |
| Roy Oswalt | 7 | 8 | .467 | 3.72 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 111.1 | 127 | 49 | 46 | 8 | 28 | 76 | 105 |
| Vance Worley | 11 | 1 | .917 | 2.85 | 20 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 110.1 | 93 | 38 | 35 | 8 | 36 | 96 | 136 |
It’s a tough call. APBA has been stingy with giving out Grade As to starters lately. Jamie Garcia (2.76) and Roy Oswalt (2.70) both ended up with Bs last year. Oswalt’s case wasn’t helped by the fact that he had control. The extra boost of a grade bump would have over-compensated.
Assuming the Phillies continue to do well, these starters will no doubt be helped by being on a pennant team. APBA has historically made sure that winners in real life will be winners on the cards.
That said, I’m not sure three As will be in the cards (so to speak) for the Phils. Assuming everyone continues their rate of play (and continues to play, that makes a big difference too), my guess is that Lee and Halladay are in like Flynn but Hamels is only a distinct possibility. He ranks fifth in adjusted ERA in the National League. That’s pretty good but if we go solely on that (and no, I know that’s not all grades are determined), you would have ten A starters in the set. A 2.63 ERA might be stretching it and considering Hamels has control won’t help.
One point in favor of giving Hamels an A is that currently, the Phils lead the league in ERA with a pretty formidable ERA of 3.05. If APBA wants to make sure they maintain their pitching prowess, one way is to give their pitchers the higher grade if they are sitting on the fence. Hamels is one such pitcher.
One last topic of relevance is one I will hit on but should probably save for another article. It’s the radically lower ERA across the league. In the National League right now, the ERA is a miniscule 3.83. To compare, last year’s was 4.02, in 2009, it was 4.19 and the year before it was 4.29. What APBA does with APBA cards will be interesting. Will they adjust the barometer for pitching grades (I guess that might be why I think Hamels will get the B) or will they adjust each hitter’s card, making it stronger to compensate (like they did in 1968)? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Hamels has a few weeks to get that ERA down. A couple shutouts and it will be down to the 2.40 range and APBA won’t have much choice than to give him that A. Of course, I’m no expert at APBA card predicting. I didn’t see Manny Parra getting a C this year.
Related posts:
I am not nearly as sure as you are about Roy Halladay’s chances.
If he gets (ZZ) as expected, I think he’s less than 50/50 to be an A Pitcher.
DonS.
You make a good point, Don. I didn’t even consider the ZZ factor.
I’m not a big fan of control letters “controlling” a pitcher’s grade but the fact is, they do. Plus the ZZ is a beast, keeping so many baserunners off the basepaths.
I’m inclined to agree with your odds.
I do not even know how I stopped up here, but I assumed this publish used to be great. I do not understand who you’re but definitely you’re going to a famous blogger in the event you are not already. Cheers!