by Scott Fennessy
This is an article that was sort of sparked by a question Tom asked me during of my replay updates. He asked if I used the charts for injuries, and I replied back that I did. I know sometimes the way the numbers on the charts lead to a lot of injuries to certain positions; In my 1901 and 1905 replays a surprising number of players have the result number 23. With both sets having two error numbers per card (due to the very low fielding percentages in the early days).
Well, over the course of the one and three quarters seasons I have replayed third baseman are basically an endangered species. I had noted on my most recent update about the troubles Harry Wolverton and Bill Bradley have had, and more interestingly enough just tonight George Rhoe has joined that elite group of constantly injured third baseman. What makes his joining this group even more spectacular is that he has not really had much opportunity to play at all anyway.
Rohe saw his first action in game 2 a sub for Lee Tannehill and in his first at bat of the season hits a home run. So I put him in the next day and he hits yet another home run. Considering he only has one zero on the card I say maybe I let him start a third game, and he promptly gets hurt and misses over a month. About three games after his return I put him in during a blowout and sure enough he gets hurt and misses over 10 games. Then after returning again I put him in the lineup solely to give Tannehill a much needed day off and he gets hurt for another 19 games. So through 87 games this guy has managed to play in 12 games, and be hurt for over 50 of the rest of the games. Sadly enough in this replay (the year before the White Sox were the hitless wonders) his 2 home runs LEADS the team, which has a total of 3 for the season.
So that said, has anyone ever had players get injured this often? While I have never actually considered modifying the injuries has anyone ever done this, and what were the results?
You raise a good question. This is one area of the game that needs modification for serious replayers and leagues.
Since our leagues uses strict limits, we just have the player sit out his J-number of games (a J-3 player sits out three games). They don’t overlap into the next series.
there is the Injury Chart. That can be fun and devastating at the same time.
Either of those methods don’t allow for any randomization of the player who gets injured though. It’s always the same players (ie thirdbaseman, SS, LF, runner on first).
I replayed the SF Giants ’91 season three times when I was a teenager. Willie McGee (j-2) in one of the seasons was injured a handful of times.
It seems to me that pitchers don’t get hurt very much either, since they have low OBP. If you double switch with NL teams, the relievers almost never hit. In the AL with DH’s, there won’t be any injuries for pitchers. Maybe the outcome should be that a random player gets hurt (depending on what is rolled and the play) and roll the die to see who gets hurt (if they are on the field). Sort of like an assist or foul (or penalty) in basketball/hockey.
Mike,
It struck me also that a glaring anomaly in the game (at least in my experience) is the conspicuous absence of pitcher injuries. Sore arms? Never heard of ’em. I’m playing the basic game….is it any different in the more advanced versions? It’s the one somewhat unrealistic aspect of the game, imho.
Tom Dunn
I’ve never play the Master game. I used the old (1981) until just a few weeks ago (now I have 2006), so I was unaware of the board changes.
Injuries can be a real problem. In a 1964 replay the Senators had catchers go down on successive days. They had only 2 catchers on the 25 man roster and only 1 more in the extras. I ended up creating a catcher based upon one of their minor leaguers. In my mind things like that can happen so just like real life you have got to call up somebody. I also have had the serial injuries to the same player. One I remember is Bob Turley of the 1961 Yankees who went down 3 times before All Star break. Considering his mind boggling ERA, 9.59; I viewed it as a good way to get rid of him.
Player injuries can be unrealistic. My XC fantasy team has lost Jeff Manto three times during the season, with no other injuries.
The new set of boards spreads the injuries around a bit more:
• Runner on first, play result 41, runner hurt
• Runner on second, play result 23, third baseman; play result 38, pitcher hurt (Fielding One only)
• Runner on third base, play result 23, second baseman and right fielder hurt; play result 41, catcher hurt
• Runners on first and second, play result 23, catcher hurt (Fielding One); play result 38, pitcher hurt (Fielding One and Three), runner hurt (Fielding Two)
• Runners on second and third, play result 37, third baseman hurt (Fielding Two), first baseman hurt (Fielding One); play result 39, second baseman and left fielder hurt
Unless I missed one, the center fielder gets a pass on defensive injuries.
As a follow up, Bradley returned from the DL, and on a gut feeling I held him back. And sure enough the back up third baseman got injured.
One of the luckier players is Giants third baseman Art Devlin. He is a J-0 and has been hurt during games 7 times this season and thankfully has just missed the remainder of those games.
Hey y’all – wanted to throw this out there and see if any of you have done something similar to help with the injuries (or lack thereof) for season replays.
I’ve started doing “arm checks” prior to the start of each game for each eligible pitcher for both teams. I roll a percentile (01-00) for each pitcher, and if the result comes up as 00, 01, 02, 03, or 04, I compare that result to the pitcher’s J- rating. I have a “table” of sorts that should the roll result for that pitcher indicate a sore arm, or injury of some sort (lat strain, elbow soreness, etc.), the pitcher will sit out games based on their %ile roll vs. their J factor.
Sound complicated? Maybe a little. Too much work? Not really – it’s 10-12 quick dice rolls before the game ever starts.
I’m doing something similar with injuries as a result of HBP. If a player is hit by a pitch, I do the same thing as above – roll %ile and check my created “table” against that batter’s J factor. A “00” result would cause the batter to leave the game in progress, but no other missed time. 01, 02, 03, and 04 results depend on the player’s J factor against the chart.
I JUST started using these ideas, so they’re not really field-tested yet, but I thought I’d throw these out there to see if anyone else has tried anything similar, or if anyone knows of an already-existing mod or tool out there like this. If you do, by all means, let me know!
I’d love to hear how this works out for you. I tend use actual lineups so I ignore injuries other than taking them out for the remainder of the game but that’s just how I do it. I know others appreciate a more random approach.
This is exactly what I’m looking for, what is a percentile? 00-04? Is that 2 d10? And just 4% chance of injury? Makes sense, about 1 in 8 teams rolled for will have 1 injury.
Do you have any other injury innovations for different play results?
Hi Mark –
Yeah, it’s 2d10 with a base zero, so results are 01-00. And thus far, results seem pretty positive. I have had some injuries happen since I started using this idea, but that was the expectation.
In addition to doing the arm-checks for pitchers and checking for injuries on HBP’s, I’m also checking for injuries on those “play-at-the-plate” plays that result in an out, where the catcher and runner are GOING to collide. As little opportunity for injuries exists for catchers on the Basic Game boards, I thought it might level the playing field a bit. I’m not trying to recreate a Buster Posey-type injury, but I think it might make for a bit more realism.
Wade,
I like it. So when you do roll a 00-04 for a given pitcher on an arm check, what is the procedure to establish an injury and the duration? Do you just roll against the J- injury chart? I rolled a 02 for a guy, he’s a J-4. Do I roll against the J chart to find duration? Or do you have some other method. I love this, adding injury checks in game as well!
Thanks,
Mark
Hi Mark –
I have it set up as follows:
If a 00 is rolled, the pitcher is out for only that game, regardless of J- factor.
For J-1 pitchers:
A result of 01 requires a roll on the J-chart, and the pitcher is out for that # of games. Any other result and he’s OK to pitch with no issues.
For J-2 pitchers:
01: roll against J-2 chart
02: roll against J-1 chart
For J-3 pitchers:
01: roll against J-3 chart
02: roll against J-2 chart
03: roll against J-1 chart
For J-4 pitchers:
01: roll against J-4 chart
02: roll against J-3 chart
03: roll against J-2 chart
04: roll against J-1 chart
J-0 J-1 J-2 J-3 J-4
00 out 1 game out 1 game out 1 game out 1 game out 1 game
01 x roll J-1 roll J-2 roll J-3 roll J-4
02 x x roll J-1 roll J-2 roll J-3
03 x x x roll J-1 roll J-2
04 x x x x roll J-1
As a note, since I’ve started doing this, it seems like the injury frequency has increased perhaps a bit more than I was expecting, considering I’m rolling these arm checks EVERY GAME. I’m thinking about switching to just doing them at the beginning of each series instead of each game to minimize this. Stay tuned and I’ll let you know if that’s a little more accurate. :)
Oh, and to answer your question, Mark –
If you rolled a 02 for a J-4 pitcher, you’d have to roll 2d6 against the J-*3* chart based on the way I have it broken down. Essentially, if the %ile roll is 00, pitcher misses just that game. If it matches the pitcher’s J- factor exactly (i.e. a result of 03 on a J-3 pitcher), roll against J-1 for that pitcher (minimal games missed). If it’s one digit LESS than his J- factor, use the J-2 chart. If it’s two digits less than his J- factor, Use J-3. Only pitchers with a J-4 and a %ile result of 01 will roll on the J-4 chart (and oddly enough, I’ve already had this happen. Chuck Cary, we barely knew ye…)
I hope that didn’t totally confuse you.
Hello!
I’d love to hear more about this, and how it’s working so far. I’m always looking for improvements in my Basic Game league. I’m doing a rough replay of the 2013 season, with 2 expansion teams. It’s great so far!
I’m at @KennJDodgerBlue on Twitter, look forward to hearing from you.
Sorry, that chart copied poorly. Let’s try it a different way (stupid Excel…)
00 01 02 03 04
J-0 out 1 game x x x x
J-1 out 1 game roll J-1 x x x
J-2 out 1 game roll J-2 roll J-1 x x
J-3 out 1 game roll J-3 roll J-2 roll J-1 x
J-4 out 1 game roll J-4 roll J-3 roll J-2 roll J-1
Wade,
This is great, your J-4 pitchers have 5 chances in 100 to be out and more chance for extended visits to the DL. And decreasing for each level of J-factor.
J-0, 1 in 100 rolls to be out for a single game only. So ~1.5 per season.
J-1, 1 in 50 rolls, ~3 injuries per season plus a bit of a chance for extended.
J-2, 1 in 33 rolls, ~5 injuries and increasing stays possible on the 1/100 match of Jfactor.
J-3, 1 in 25 rolls. ~6.5
J-4, 1 in 20 rolls. ~8
All seems fair enough when rolled on a game to game basis. Although, I hadn’t been considering starting pitchers to roll every game but only on their gameday? But maybe should be daily as all others, considering sore arm, developing fatigue, off day injury. …it’s more common that you see a starter go to the DL in between starts after determining that the injury or fatigue is greater than realized on gameday.
Good stuff, I’ll be using this and update you how it comes along.
Thanks,
Mark
Hi Mark –
I actually only roll the starters on their start day. If the result is an injury for only a game or two, I’ll just skip their turn in the rotation and use an emergency starter. If the result is an injury long enough to DL him, I’ll usually make the DL stint retroactive to the day after his last appearance.
Good stuff, I see now where I confused the J-factor matching for the worst possible outcome vs rolling a 01 should be worst in your setup.
Didn’t have any in my last game
Hi Mark –
I’ve actually made a modification to how I do my “arm checks” as I’ve continued my replay. I’ve run into an awful lot more injuries than I’d expected to, so what I’ve opted to do instead is this:
At the beginning of each “series cycle”, I roll 2d6 for every team in the league. Any team with a roll of “doubles” (11,22,33, etc.) must be examined for injuries. Any other roll, and the team is “safe” from injuries for the series unless it is an in-game injury.
To examine a team for injuries, I simply roll %ile dice for each player. If the result for any player falls within their J-range (J-0 (00 only) through J-4 (00-04), a third roll is required based on the chart I gave above. It’s cut back on the frequency of pitchers’ injuries (which had become so frequent I was scrambling for pitchers to call up from the minors), and also slightly increased injuries for players not related to in-game regular dice roll injuries.
Also, I do use the Unusual Play Card and Error Chart Card in every game – it seems to be much more “fair” to allow for the possibility of injuries or errors to happen with ANY batter at the plate instead of only certain situations happening because a particular player has a “23” or “41” on his card.
Hi Scott!
I have also noticed the third-baseman as an endangered species problem. I actually had two third-basemen from the ’86 Orioles go down IN THE SAME GAME, both of which had to go on the Disabled List. It’s kinda hard to win ballgames when your available thirdbasemen are Jackie Gutierrez and Rex Hudler (who batted .000 in about 10 games that year).
I think that using the UPC helps with this issue a little, but I’d love to see APBA come up with a better solution for both pitcher and player injuries. If anyone else has any information about modifications they use regarding injuries to players, I’m totally open to hearing them.
Hello Wade,
It’s interesting to revisit after a few years. APBA still needs a better solution for regular season replays. I have noticed that with the advent of more advanced statistics APBA has found better ways to get the fielding percentages needed without putting two error numbers on the cards.
Additionally they have drastically reduced the use of the number 23, which I think was the almost always the second error number on outfielder cards from the Pre 2000 sets.
WHile this has limited the number of injuries on the newer card sets it will likely be up to the individual season player to decide how to proceed.